Recent polling on Proposition 22, which would exempt rideshare drivers from the AB 5 law, suggests the Election Day outcome for the vigorously debated ballot measure remains a toss-up.
The figures released by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed, “Likely voter preferences on the initiative are currently inconclusive, with 39% of likely voters intending to vote Yes, 36% intending to vote No and 25% undecided.”
“It’s not terribly surprising that the public is very divided,” Adam Summers, a research fellow at the Independent Institute, told the Northern California Record. “But if Prop 22 fails, it could be catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of workers whose jobs could be put in jeopardy.”
Uber and Lyft, which began the campaign to pass Prop 22 late last year, have suggested they will move out of California if their workers are not exempted from AB 5's full-time employee mandates.
In the just finished legislative session, California lawmakers approved exempting dozens more professions from AB 5, following efforts from independent contractors in other industries.
“There’s another undercurrent to the whole Prop 22 debate, it has to do with unionization,” Summers said. “Unions are salivating at the prospect of unionizing rideshare workers and all the dues that would come from that.”
The companies have put forth their own proposals for worker benefits under Prop 22, which the San Francisco Chronicle recently cited in its endorsement of the measure.
“If the ‘No’ campaign prevails, a small number of workers might see improvements, but many more will lose their jobs entirely,” Summers said. “The companies would be less profitable and probably have to cut back on expenses and both workers and consumers would suffer.”
Both sides in the debate have been allocating more resources to their respective campaigns in the weeks before the Nov. 3 decision.
“It’s hard to tell in California,” Summers said. “I could see it going either way, while I don’t think either legislators or voters should be dictating business terms, it’s California and we’ll have to wait and see.”