With the gubernatorial recall now behind Californians, questions remain about how the outcome will impact policy on homelessness, housing, crime, wildfires, water storage and schools, and what it all means for the 2022 election.
Though polling briefly showed a close race between Yes and No, the campaign rule permitting the recall officeholder to raise unlimited funds worked in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s favor, as roughly $80 million helped pay for a last-minute media blitz, Lance Christensen, chief operations officer at the California Policy Center, told the Northern California Record.
“As much as I thought there was a lot of momentum behind the recall, it was clear that those that want to keep the governor in power with benefits of his largesse did everything they could to stay the course and expend resources and capital,” Christensen said.
It’s an unknown whether Newsom’s policy priorities may shift in the coming months, but the outcome shouldn’t be viewed as an endorsement of his work so far, Christensen said.
“A lot of people that voted for him to stay in office didn’t do so because they support him or thought he had a better policy, but likely did it because they felt like they wanted to do it at the ballot box in the regularly scheduled election in 2022.”
Though he made it through the recall, it’s not clear if Democrats would be more inclined to support Newsom or a more moderate Democrat in 2022, Christensen said.
“In 2022, I predict he’ll have a formidable opponent from the Democratic Party who will challenge him for the Center,” Christensen said. “The recall failing means that Gavin Newsom can continue to ignore the massive problems the state of California is facing. Especially as he has let business after business leave under his historically draconian policies.”
The recall’s short campaign period left candidates with less chance to articulate their message, and the unlimited contributions cut off robust discussion of issues in the final days.
With opponents limited to what they could raise, it’s raising questions about why there has been fervor among Democrats to change recall qualification thresholds, even as other recall efforts are underway.
“Over the last several years, they have already changed the recall laws so many times to their advantage,” Christensen said. “It's just interesting to me that all of a sudden they want to have a fundamental change.”
Christensen noted it suggests a desire to quell what is clearly the voter preference for the ability to fire their elected representatives.
A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll last week showed voters overwhelmingly favor the recall option, 75% to 24%.