The California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC) has submitted final maps to the Secretary of State, raising questions about how the new voting districts may change the political landscape in the 2022 election year.
While this year’s redistricting process was unprecedented – occurring during a time of pandemic with a delayed U.S. Census that resulted in an accelerated, last-minute redistricting process that stretched into Christmas season – the independent redistricting commission ultimately produced new district lines that will shake up California politics based on population and demographic trends, Tim Anaya, senior director of communications at the Pacific Research Institute and director of PRI’s Sacramento office, told the Northern California Record by email.
“This year’s commission was criticized for a largely inefficient process, and the influence of outside advocacy groups in determining the final district lines,” Anaya said. “Once inevitable legal challenges are filed, it will be up to the courts to decide whether the commission’s final district lines violated state law or the federal Voting Rights Act and will stand for the next decade.”
The CRC – comprised of five Democrats, five Republicans and four members who are registered as No Party Preference – is tasked with redrawing district maps with equal population distribution for Congressional, state Legislature, and Board of Equalization districts, which oversee county assessment policies. The new maps alter a number of voting districts.
“The practical impact of the maps is that many state lawmakers will have to put up for sale signs on their houses if they wish to remain in the Legislature as state law requires lawmakers to live in the districts they represent,” Anaya said. “If someone wants to earn some quick cash in 2022, they should get their real estate license and offer their services to state legislators, who will need to move quickly in order to establish residency to run for re-election under the new lines.”
The newly drawn districts reflect significant changes at both the state and federal levels.
“At the federal level, the biggest change is that California lost a seat in Congress, based on its population numbers in the new Census,” Anaya said. “As PRI has documented, California’s outmigration problem continues to grow worse as more people of all income levels leave for states like Florida and Texas that increased congressional representation following the Census. It’s another reason why lawmakers and the Governor should take our outmigration problem more seriously – more people leaving the state means a reduced voice for California and our state’s priorities in Congress.”
A number of lawmakers may also seek office outside the California Legislature.
“At the state level, based on the final lines, the impact will not necessarily be the new district lines, but who will represent them,” Anaya said. “Californians will see the biggest turnover in the Legislature in a decade as more than a dozen state lawmakers have announced their plans to leave the Legislature and the number could grow in the coming days. Some lawmakers were drawn into districts with other lawmakers and have opted to retire or seek another office rather than move or face a tough primary. Others saw new Congressional seats open up in their communities and have opted to pursue those opportunities. Some are running for seats on their local county board of supervisors. Whatever the results in November under these new lines, Californians will see many new faces representing them in Sacramento in 2023.”
Anaya noted that now that the redistricting commission has finished its work, attention will shift to the courts.
“Groups that are not pleased with the new maps will soon file lawsuits, hoping the courts will order changes to the maps based on their concerns,” Anaya said.
The key issue is the timeline.
“Candidates will have to file for the November election by March,” Anaya said. “Even if court hearings on these challenges are speedy and judges are inclined to agree that changes to the maps should be made, it will likely take time and outside expertise for courts to redraw lines. There simply may not be time before the candidate filing period closes in March for this to happen. Candidates will be watching very closely how the court handles these cases and remedies to any successful challenges.”