A California ballot measure that would restore to police and prosecutors a stronger ability to address crime and lawlessness across California appears to be on a path to victory, according to a series of polls of voters in the Bay Area and elsewhere in the state.
In recent weeks, a number of surveys have shown the ballot measure known as Proposition 36 enjoying supermajority support from voters, despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom and other prominent Democratic California political figures and advocates for criminal justice reform.
The measure was proposed by a coalition calling themselves Californians for Safer Communities, seeking to repeal certain criminal justice reform measures enacted in 2014 through a ballot question generally known as Proposition 47.
Supporters of Prop 47, which prominently included the state's former Attorney General and current Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, had passed the measure at the time with the stated goal of reducing prison populations in California and the alleged negative impacts on racial minority communities from incarceration. The measure sought to accomplish that goal by redefining a host of felonies as misdemeanors.
Prop 47 particularly tied the hands of police and prosecutors to address retail theft, burglaries and other so-called "property crimes," as well as drug trafficking.
According to analyses conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California and others, Prop 47 has been a significant driver in the explosion of drug and property crime and other criminal behavior in California in the past decade, and particularly when coupled with state policies enacted in response to the Covid pandemic.
The PPIC analysis noted also that Prop 47 appears to have also dropped participation by drug-related offenders in the state's drug court system, reducing the number of people completing court-ordered drug addiction treatment.
All told, supporters of Proposition 36 say Prop 47 has produced significant problems for California's communities and the state's economy, making streets less safe and leading to store closings and other kinds of disinvestment and exodus from California.
Under Prop 36, California's criminal justice code would be rewritten to increase penalties for retail theft and other property crimes. Among other changes, the law would allow police and prosecutors to charge retail thieves for the total amount of merchandise stolen to trigger harsher penalties, rather than just what was taken in one shoplifting episode.
Prop 36 would also stiffen penalties for drug trafficking and would require the state to treat fentanyl like other street drugs, including heroin, cocaine, PCP and methamphetamine, meaning dealers and those in possession of fentanyl could face tougher criminal charges, including murder charges, if the drugs they sell result in someone's death.
And Prop 36 supporters say the measure would restore strong incentives to persuade drug offenders to go through the drug court system to avoid jail time and receive addiction treatment.
Gov. Newsom and other prominent California Democrats have opposed the measure.
Newsom, particularly, has asserted the measure would return "mass incarceration" in California and return California to a "war on drugs" footing, akin to the 1980s.
Voters in California, however, appear to disagree with the governor and others who wish to keep Prop 47's reforms in place, despite the clear rise in crime identified by analysts in communities of all sizes across the state.
Of that 70%, fully 50% of those surveyed said they strongly support the measure.
The Joint Venture survey did not directly ask respondents if they would support Prop 36. Rather, surveyors asked if they would support portions of Prop 47 dealing with retail theft, property crime and drug offenses.
The survey included interviews with 1,773 adults in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties in August. The survey included a 2.5% margin of error.
According to the survey, the support cuts across partisan lines, as 64% of Democrats support the measure, including 41% who strongly support it. The survey said the ballot measure was supported by 87% of Republicans, including 75% who strongly support, and 71% of Independents, and 57% who strongly support.
Those numbers line up with other surveys of voters across the Golden State.
A poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) released in early October found 60% of likely voters intend to vote "Yes" on Prop 36. The IGS said support for the measure is "extremely broad-based," with support cutting across party lines, racial groups and other demographics.
The IGS survey found "the only major demographic subgroups opposed to the intiative are Black voters and strong liberals."
IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora, a sociology professor at the University of California at Berkeley, said the survey results particularly show Latinos "have more nuanced views on drug crime and punishment today."
Slightly echoing Newsom and other opponents of Prop 36, Mora added the survey results "complicate the perception that California voters have stepped away from the punitive policies of the turn of the century..."
The IGS poll surveyed 3,045 likely California voters in English and Spanish online from Sept. 25-Oct. 1.
A PPIC survey, released in September, also showed strong support for Prop 36 among California voters, with 71% of respondents saying they intend to vote "Yes" on Prop 36, with 41% saying the outcome of the vote on Prop 36 is very important.
The PPIC survey also found strong support for Prop 36 across party lines, as 85% of Republicans, 73% of independents and 63% of Democrats say they intend to vote "Yes."
The PPIC survey indicates 64% of Bay Area residents they surveyed supported Prop 36, the weakest support for the measure in five major population centers, including Los Angeles (71% support); San Diego/Orange County (74% support); Central Valley (73% support); and Inland Empire (79% support).
PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare said Prop 36 also enjoys the greatest amount of voter enthusiasm among all 10 questions voters will decide in November.
The support for Prop 36 comes, however, despite strong support statewide for Democratic candidates, in general, including 60% who say they intend to vote for Kamala Harris.
When she was California Attorney General in 2014, Harris was among the strongest supporters of Prop 47 and the criminal justice reforms that have since been blamed for playing a leading role in fueling California's current crime problems.
Harris has not publicly indicated if she would now support Prop 36, as do an apparent supermajority of California voters - including a large number of her supporters in the state in 2024.