The recent heat wave and rolling blackouts have prompted more discussion on how to fix energy reliability when the next power generation crisis occurs.
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which oversees the state’s power grid, has identified potential service issues if fast-ramping options can’t be used to supplement weather-based systems, Leah Silverthorn, California Chamber of Commerce energy and climate policy advocate, told the Northern California Record.
“CASIO has said if we don’t do something there could be a capacity shortfall of more than 3,000 megawatts starting in the summer of 2021,” Silverthorn said. “It means that as demand goes beyond capacity, more rolling blackouts will happen.”
The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) is part of a multi-agency coalition that has recommended continuing the life of several natural gas plants, and the California Water Resources Control Board is scheduled Tuesday to consider that alternative as a Once Through Cooling (OTC) policy amendment. to help reinforce weather-based methods.
“Several compounding recent events have resulted in concern for system-wide grid reliability arising in the summer of 2021,” the Water Board meeting notice states. “These events include shifts in peak demand to later in the day and later in the year when solar and wind resources are not as reliably available to meet peak demand; changes in the method for calculating the qualifying capacity of wind and solar resources resulting in lower qualifying capacity for these resources than previously determined; a significant increase in projected reliance on imported electricity over historical levels; and earlier-than-expected closures of some non-OTC power generating facilities.”
In the last few years, state regulators have been predicting a reliability shortfall, Silverthorn said.
“The proposal before the Water Board supports the idea that we should be extending the natural gas plant runs, only when we run out of power,” she said.
A May letter to the Water Board from the chamber, the California Manufacturers and Technology Association, and other business groups notes that the CPUC has recommended five natural gas plants operating at low capacity along the coast temporarily remain open. The coalition letter was submitted as part of the public comment period on the OTC policy change.
“These modest proposed extensions will be used as a bridge to ensure that reliability shortfalls—brown outs and black outs from a lack of available power—do not occur while the state builds out additional reliability capacity,” the letter states.
Given the complications of building new power and price considerations of purchasing from other states, the stopgap measure would help ensure an adequate energy supply for homes and businesses during record-setting heat and other times of peak demand, Silverthorn said.
“Covid is changing the way we work and live, we need to maintain our resources and to make sure all of our policies work together,” she added.