A measure to dismantle California’s longtime protection against raising property taxes appeared headed for defeat early this week, though many mail-in ballots still need to be processed.
Proposition 15 seeks to introduce a “split-roll” system that taxes commercial properties at a higher rate, repealing protections that have been in place since 1978 under Proposition 13.
The most recent results reported by the California Secretary of State over the weekend showed Proposition 15 trailing by roughly a half million votes (6,675,946 or 48.1 percent in favor, and 7,211,998 or 51.9 percent opposed).
“We’re encouraged by it,” Susan Shelley, VP, communications with the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association (HJTA), told the Northern California Record. “We think that the results so far speak to the power and popularity of Proposition 13.”
“Voters understand how important it is to protect Proposition 13 because it protects taxpayers from out-of-control tax increases,” Shelley said.
The No on Prop 15 coalition, which includes a broad array of business and government groups, have maintained that passing the state’s largest tax increase, particularly amid the COVID-19 pandemic, will further deter economic progress.
Additionally, the California Assessor’s Association (CAA), formally opposed Prop 15, the first time that group has taken an official stance on a statewide initiative, because it would be impossible to implement, particularly in larger counties with not enough assessors.
The estimated cost of implementation across California’s 58 counties is $430 million to $760 million, mainly to expand assessors’ staff and upgrade technology operations.
“With as many votes as there are left to count, it is not yet a settled issue,” Don Gaekle, Stanislaus County Assessor and CAA president, told the Record by email. “However, remaining votes would also have to diverge significantly from those already cast to overcome the current 400,000 vote deficit."
Assessors are encouraged, at least for now.
“Although the California Assessors’ Association (CAA) has opposed Proposition 15, if it should ultimately be approved by the voters, the CAA will work with all affected parties to help ensure clarity and administrative efficiency in the law during the legislative implementation process,” Gaekle said. “California Assessors will work diligently to enforce all provisions of the California Constitution and the laws of the State of California.”
Shelley noted that while California ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, this year they have 17 days to arrive and can still be counted.
“We certainly believe if it were to pass, it would be devastating for California’s economic recovery,” Shelley said. “Although we think it is trending in the right direction, it’s not over until it is over.”