While preliminary data released by the Secretary of State shows the special election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to proceed, Californians’ appetite to do so this fall compared to last remains to be seen.
The push to oust the Democratic governor in one of the nation’s bluest states will be about party preference and the degree to which voters are seeing consistent recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, Bob Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future and the Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw chair in practical politics at USC Dornsife, told the Northern California Record.
“When you look at the political geography of the state, it’s very hard to see how this recall can be sustained,” Shrum said. “If their kids are going back to school, if jobs are being created, if people are not getting sick in large numbers, that’s the real background against which people will vote.”
While the state has reported 12.8 million people are now fully vaccinated and June 15 remains the target date for fully reopening, concerns persist about when public schools will reopen to in-person learning. The state has not issued collective data on the number of school districts that offer it, the Sacramento Bee reported.
Newsom’s efforts to contain the virus led to some of the country’s most restrictive lockdown measures, and the impact on the youngest residents, the majority of whom have not returned to classrooms, can’t yet be measured.
Some states have mandated children’s return to classrooms, following CDC guidance that it is safe to do so. But in California, the government has worked to provide financial incentives via AB 86 but stopped short of a mandate.
A recent study from University of Oxford research fellow Michelle Kaffenberger notes that simulations have shown “a three-month school closure could reduce long term learning by a full year’s worth of learning.”
On Friday, the parents’ group Open Schools California, issued an “SOS” news release that states 100 days into the Biden Administration, 6 million California children still are not learning in classrooms.
In the lead up to the election, it’s assumed more candidates will emerge, Shrum said. So far, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, businessman John Cox, former Congressman Doug Ose, and activist Caitlyn Jenner have announced campaigns to challenge Newsom. ABC 7 reported more people are stepping forward following the signature data released last week.
Taxes are one issue Republicans are expected to campaign on.
But taxes aren’t top of mind for the vast majority of voters in this state, Shrum said.
“What’s important to voters is what they know from their own lives – do they see an economy that looks like it has strong prospects for the future, do they see schools reopening, do they see Covid under control," he said.