With two weeks until the state budget deadline and debate continuing on crucial economic bills, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D - Lakewood, saw his leadership role almost usurped by Assemblymember Robert Rivas, D - Hollister.
News broke late last week that Rivas had secured enough votes to become speaker, a post Rendon is slated to hold until 2024. But momentum seemed to change during the long holiday weekend, and the two announced in a joint statement late Tuesday that Rendon would remain speaker at least through this Legislative session, which ends in August.
“Politicians are naturally ambitious. They may not say it out loud, but every Assemblymember wakes up the morning and sees a potential speaker staring back at them in the mirror,” Tim Anaya, senior director of communications at the Pacific Research Institute and director of PRI’s Sacramento office, said in an email response to the Northern California Record.
“With Speaker Rendon terming out of the Assembly in 2024, Assembly Democrats were naturally starting to grow restless as the end of a long speakership nears,” Anaya said. “Assemblymember Rivas saw an opportunity to surprise Speaker Rendon before Memorial Day weekend by presenting him with what he thought was an overwhelming list of support within the Caucus to force an immediate leadership change.
“But giving Speaker Rendon the long holiday weekend to organize was clearly a political mistake, one that allowed him to rally his supporters and retain enough support to stave off the immediate challenge and remain in office.”
Rendon has served as speaker for six years. The speakership upheaval has raised questions about the Assembly Democrats’ progress on key constituent concerns.
“While there may be some policy disagreements among legislative Democrats, such as the current debate over the gas tax and the failure of single-payer health care legislation earlier this year, this current speakership fight shouldn’t be seen as a debate over policy,” Anaya said. “Whether Speaker Rendon ultimately remains as speaker or Assemblymember Rivas forces him out, there aren’t major policy differences among whichever Democrat would lead the Assembly.”
This fight is about internal caucus politics, Anaya said.
“It’s a debate over strategy and tactics, personalities, and the trappings of office such as who gets to chair what committee,” Anaya said. “As I saw firsthand many times during my nearly two decades working in the legislature, internal caucus politics can be very disruptive when they bubble to the surface, as we saw with Tuesday’s fractious Democratic caucus meeting – and they can influence policy. We could see this Democrat division frustrate efforts to reach internal agreement on key outstanding policy issues this session, such as whether to give Californians relief from record high gas prices through a tax rebate or suspending the gas tax.”
The joint statement from Rendon and Rivas did not mention immediate plans for a power transition.
“Anthony Rendon is serving well as speaker and we have a lot of important business in front of us,” Rivas said. “I agree with the majority of our current caucus that Speaker Rendon should remain as Speaker for at least the rest of this legislative session. I look forward to working with him for the betterment of California and the unity of the Assembly Democratic Caucus.”
Rendon said he applauded Rivas for garnering support from a majority of the current Democratic caucus in his speakership bid. “Assemblymember Rivas has brought together a broad and diverse coalition that reflects the high esteem in which he is held by our colleagues,” Rendon said.
But there still weren’t enough votes.
“Clearly, Assemblymember Rivas has yet to learn the lesson that Speaker Rendon and every other successful speaker before him took to heart – the ability to always count to 41 votes,” Anaya said. “It was obvious on Tuesday that Assemblymember Rivas had a majority vote among Democrats but not the required 41 votes of the entire Assembly to be elected speaker. The statement was an attempt at face saving and caucus unity.”
Anaya noted that only when a vote is taken on the Assembly floor will a new speaker be elected.
“For now, all we have is a statement with vague language,” Anaya said. “It remains up in the air when or even if a speakership vote will be taken this session, let alone a transition – and the statement did little to clear up this confusion.”
Anaya stressed that this week’s Democratic caucus is not the final word on the speakership fight.
“Whatever happens the rest of this session, the next speaker will really be elected after the November elections, when more than two dozen new legislators will be sworn in,” Anaya said. “Keep in mind that several current Democratic Assemblymembers, who may be key votes in the Rendon versus Rivas speakership fight, will no longer be in the Assembly after November.
“Keep an eye on the new Assemblymembers who are elected in November, as they will ultimately cast the deciding votes on whether Speaker Rendon or Assemblymember Rivas or even a third candidate is elected as speaker,” Anaya said. “Even though one candidate may win the vote in June, that does not mean they will win the speakership vote after the election.”